Volatility Factor

Monday, January 16, 2012

FOREX Currency Systems

With the many FOREX currency systems available, you can in theory, simply turn your computer on and follow the signals to generate automatic profits. That’s the theory - but the fact is, there are many FOREX currency systems sold that are obvious scams, and the systems will never work. This article aims to give you tips on picking systems that can make money, and avoid the scams. There are two main reasons why most FOREX currency trading systems fail to live up to their Hype: 1. Black Box Systems These are systems where the logic is not revealed to the buyer - and for a FOREX currency trading system to be used successfully, the trader must have confidence in it. If you don’t know the logic of the system, you will not have the confidence to follow it when a losing period occurs. You need to follow a system rigidly to make money - otherwise you may as well not have a system in the first place. Using a FOREX Currency trading system is all about having the discipline to follow the system - and if you don’t have confidence in the logic, you will never do this. 2. Curve Fitting and Optimization Another indication of a currency trading system that is a scam, is one that involves curve fitting, or optimization. These systems give a fantastic performance in back testing - because of the tweaking of the system rules, to make them fit the data, and produce profits. A trader once likened this to shooting holes in a barn door, and then drawing circles around every hole - to make each shot look like a bull’s-eye. Let’s face it, we would all be millionaires, if we had tomorrow’s news today - but we don’t. Avoid any system that offers unique rules, or many variations for trading different markets. If the system is based on solid logic - it should work on ANY trending market, and should not be optimized, or curve fitted to an individual market. You will never see a hypothetical performance that fails! Most unscrupulous vendors achieve great performance by making the system fit the data - and this causes the system to fail in real time trading.

Here are four tips, to help you separate out the scams, from the good FOREX currency-trading systems:
1. The Rules and Logic are Fully Explained You will then have confidence in the system when it suffers a string of consecutive losses.

2. Some Evidence of a Real Time Track Record Has the system has made money in the real world of trading? This is the acid test of a system. If there is not a real record, look for a hypothetical audit done in real time - many systems do this before launching, and this gives a good indication of how the system will perform.

3. Look for Simple Systems There is absolutely no correlation between how complicated a system is, and its profit potential. In fact, simple systems tend to work best, and will tend to be more robust in the brutal world of trading. Most of the top FOREX currencies trading systems are based on simple logic.

4. Avoid any Optimized System As already mentioned, if the system has sound principles, and then it should work on a broad spectrum of financial instruments - avoid any system that optimizes individual markets. Not all FOREX currency trading systems fail - but if you want to get one that works, be realistic and do your homework first.

Saturday, January 14, 2012

A Short Explanation Of “Buying” and “Selling” In Forex Trading.

These days everyone is talking about a new profitable activity called Forex trading and the great opportunity this activity represents for people willing to brake free from the corporate world and start working from home or any where else without losing their current lifestyle and even improving it.

Most experienced traders consider that the best and most profitable of the capital markets is the Forex market. For many years Forex trading was the sole domain of major banks, large financial institutions and countries central banks; for example the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank. But these days, thanks to the internet the market has been opened to everyone willing to learn the best techniques in forex trading and with the intention of making substantial profits as the institutions mentioned above that annually and consistently make pretty high profits from trading in the Foreign Exchange market.

You have many advantages when trading the forex markets, for example; you don't have to worry about fees you may have to pay to your broker; there are also none of the usual fees to which futures and equity traders are accustomed to pay always; no exchange or clearing fees, no NFA or SEC fees.

The forex market has five major currencies: US Dollar, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Euro and the Swiss Franc. It is due to their great popularity in world's commerce transactions and its high activity that these five currencies account for over 70% of North American trading.

Of course there are other tradable currencies; they include the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand Dollars. These minor currencies account for 4% - 7% of the total market volume. Together, all this five majors and minors currencies constitute the backbone of the Forex market.

The concept of “Buying” in Forex refers to the acquisition of a particular currency pair to open a trade and “Selling short” refers to the selling of a particular currency to open a trade, i.e, just the opposite. When you Buy, you are expecting the price of the currency pair to increase with time, i.e., you buy cheap to sell high; which is easy to understand.

In the case of Selling short, it looks a bit more complicated. Here the way to make money is to initially sell a currency pair that you think will lose value in a given period of time and then, once it happened, you will buy it back at the new price but now you can sell it at the previous greater price the currency had when you opened the trade, so you earn the difference in prices.

It may seem kind of tricky when you are starting, but once you are in front of your trading station it will look much simpler.

Friday, January 13, 2012

Million Dollar Pips - Big Wins to New Heights

Yes, the team of Million Dollar Pips and FX Retribution easily recovered from the newest high of $2.9 mil down to $2.8 mil then up on Friday to the new high of $3.0 million in Grandpa Monopoly Money. Going very far and leaving quite a trail, WallStreetathome reaches beyond all imagination.

Thursday, January 12, 2012

A Profitable Forex Strategy

Making money in the forex market is not an easy task by any means. However, given a bit of education and knowledge of the market, it can become quite easy to profit in the forex market. Most traders end up learning that it’s the simply systems that create the wealth. Over analyzing and over thinking can sometimes affect your trading methods and strategy.

The trading method I am going to explain here is probably going to upset you a little and will most likely go against everything you have ever been taught about forex. However, you have to remember that this is my personal strategy and its how I make money. It may not work for the next person, but it has shown me a way to make a substantial amount of money in the forex market. Through your forex training you might have heard traders tell you to always trade with a stop-loss.

If you don’t know what a stop-loss is, it’s simply an order telling the broker when you would like to cut your losses. I don’t trade with a stop-loss period. How is this so? How can I make money without using a stop-loss? I tend to believe that the big players in the forex market like to drive this market in certain directions to take out other traders stop-loss positions.

In order for the banks to make money, they have to take other traders monies, therefore taking out stop-loss orders in the market. I don’t allow the banks to do this to me personally. Secondly, on each trade look to make only a few pips. In some cases this is known as scalping the market. On each trade I am only looking to get 3 to maybe 6 pips or as I like to say, get in and get out.

Your next question might be, “how do I know when to enter and exit the market?” I use a set of indicators combine with a detailed analysis of trend lines and channels. The indicators tell me when to get in and get out and the trend lines give me the overall direction of the market for the next month to few years. Having a good idea of where the market is heading over the course of a few years gives me a good idea whether I am in buy mode or sell mode on a daily basis.

How is it possible to survive without using a stop-loss? Very simply put, do not risk large amounts on each trade. I only risk one tenth of my account balance per trade. For example, I only trade $1 lots on a $10,000 account. What this enables me to do is use no stop-loss. If the market moves 200 points no problem. By the time the market moves 200 points, I’ve already made 100 other trades in profit all for 3 to 6 pips each. If the market continues to get away from me, I continue trading each day gaining which eventually compensates for the few losers and eventually overrides them. When the market comes back in my favor, those losing trades are making profit every step of the way.

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

An Introduction to Currency Correlation

Global currencies don’t ride the trends in isolation. The apparent technical movement between two currencies in a pair may cause an effect in the behaviour of each separate currency. A third currency will also have some bearing on the rise or fall of a seemingly unrelated pair, in the view of an intermediate or beginning trader.

Even seasoned trend cowboys may miss the odd significant event that results in a trade loss. Technical analysis often comprises the bulk of the independent speculator’s trade decisions, but some attention to fundamental news must be included for a complete overview of what is happening in the market at that particular moment.

Neither weather, beetles, drought, hostile takeovers nor indicted CEO’s have much real bearing on currency values, but the timing of the release of economic reports should determine if a trade is viable or not. A rising tide raises all ships, but the trading ocean is made of waves, with deep troughs and high crests. A rising ship may have a tether to another that is dropping down the other side of the swell. As one currency in a trade pair rises, it may pull another currency up with it, or just the opposite. A drop in the Euro may allow an increase in the value of the GBP, which will certainly have an influence on the USD/GBP spread. So when considering the merits of a good trade, also take into account the activity of each currency’s most closely related cousin.

When trading the Canadian dollar, you must certainly consider the relative movement, or lack thereof, in the US dollar. Canada’s largest trading partner is the US, so fluctuations in the US economy may or may not have an effect on the Loonie, depending on the gravity of the news.

The UK maintained their own currency, the British Pound, but the economic business of Europe can still influence the directional trend of the Pound Sterling. The French Franc will also be swayed by the enterprise of the communal Euro. As you analyze your charts, take care to make a quick examination of any volatile activity in any similar currency.

The average day trader and individual speculator cannot possibly keep up with all the economic news released each day and still have time to trade and eat lunch, and old news has already shown itself in the charts. One must pay attention to important published economic developments, and generally avoid trading on report days. But the trend will indicate market sentiment, and great profits can be made by keeping the major focus on technical analysis.

International bankers and currency houses have developed complex mathematical models to track currency correlation, but these are beyond the scope of this article. In summary, just check how related currencies are trending, when preparing a trade. Another quick analytical tool for the traders’ arsenal is always a good thing. May your winners run long.

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

What is the relationship between various currencies?

Money. We all need it. We all want it. Trillions and trillions of dollars, pesos, euros, pounds, levs, francs, and more change hands every day for goods and services around the world. Most of us are only familiar with the money that is exchanged for goods and services in our own country and are only concerned with getting more of that. But there is a lot more to money than that.

What is the relationship between the currency in your country and the currency of some other country and why should it matter to me? I’m glad you asked. In this article we will explore some of the currencies around the world and answer some questions you may not even know you had.

First, if we are going to discuss currency and it’s relationship to other currency, we have to talk about Forex. That’s short for foreign exchange or the exchange of currency for a different type of currency.

There is no market in the world, including Wallstreet that can compare to Forex in volume of cash traded daily. Retailers, Governments, Currency Speculators, Banks, Corporations, and other financial institutions engage in forex or foreign currency exchange to the tune of trillions of dollars and other currency each day. It is a truly amazing thing to see. People making money just by trading one country’s currency for another.

Keeping up with the latest news in each country, economic trends and indicators, real-time monitoring of current currency values in comparison to another currency are all things required if you are going to speculate in this arena. More than that, some forex speculators will tell you is, you have to have a good feel for it. You have to understand economies and be able to recognize the events and conditions that will cause people to lose confidence in one currency or another. You have to know when to hold em and when to fold em, as the Kenny Rogers song goes.

If you would like to check the exchange rates for each of these currencies against other currencies, you can open a new browser window and put this url into your address bar.

It’s a Forex Calculator. http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/currency-converter?u

The following is a list of world currencies. It may not be every currency in the world, but it will give you an idea of the complexity of forex.

Albanian Lek, Algerian Dinar, Aluminium Ounces, Argentine Peso, Aruba Florin, Australian Dollar. Bahamian Dollar, Bahraini Dinar, Bangladesh Taka, Barbados Dollar, Belarus Ruble, Belize Dollar, Bermuda Dollar, Bhutan Ngultrum, Bolivian Boliviano, Brazilian Real, British Pound, Brunei Dollar, Bulgarian Lev, Burundi Franc. Cambodia Riel, Canadian Dollar, Cayman Islands Dollar, CFA Franc, Chilean Peso, Chinese Yuan, Colombian Peso, Comoros Franc, Copper Ounces, Costa Rica Colon, Croatian Kuna, Cuban Peso, Cyprus Pound, Czech Koruna. Danish Krone, Dijibouti Franc, Dominican Peso. East Caribbean Dollar, Ecuador Sucre, Egyptian Pound, El Salvador Colon, Eritrea Nakfa, Estonian Kroon, Ethiopian Birr, Euro. Falkland Islands Pound, Gambian Dalasi, Ghanian Cedi, Gibraltar Pound, Gold Ounces, Guatemala Quetzal, Guinea Franc, Haiti Gourde, Honduras Lempira, Hong Kong Dollar, Hungarian Forint, Iceland Krona, Indian Rupee, Indonesian Rupiah, Iran Rial, Israeli Shekel, Jamaican Dollar, Japanese Yen, Jordanian Dinar, Kazakhstan Tenge, Kenyan Shilling, Korean Won, Kuwaiti Dinar, Lao Kip, Latvian Lat, Lebanese Pound, Lesotho Loti, Libyan Dinar, Lithuanian Lita. Macau Pataca, Macedonian Denar, Malagasy Franc, Malawi Kwacha, Malaysian Ringgit, Maldives Rufiyaa, Maltese Lira, Mauritania Ougulya, Mauritius Rupee, Mexican Peso, Moldovan Leu, Mongolian Tugrik, Moroccan Dirham, Mozambique Metical. Namibian Dollar, Nepalese Rupee, Neth Antilles Guilder, New Turkish Lira, New Zealand Dollar, Nicaragua Cordoba, Nigerian Naira, Norwegian Krone, Omani Rial. Pacific Franc, Pakistani Rupee, Palladium Ounces, Panama Balboa, Papua New Guinea Kina, Paraguayan Guarani, Peruvian Nuevo Sol, Philippine Peso, Platinum Ounces, Polish Zloty, Qatar Rial, Romanian Leu, Romanian New Leu, Russian Rouble, Rwanda Franc. Samoa Tala, Sao Tome Dobra, Saudi Arabian Riyal, Seychelles Rupee, Sierra Leone Leone, Silver Ounces, Singapore Dollar, Slovak Koruna, Slovenian Tolar, Somali Shilling, South African Rand, Sri Lanka Rupee, St Helena Pound, Sudanese Dinar, Surinam Guilder, Swaziland Lilageni, Swedish Krona, Swiss Franc, Syrian Pound. Taiwan Dollar, Tanzanian Shilling, Thai Baht, Tonga Pa'anga, Trinidad&Tobago Dollar, Tunisian Dinar, U.S. Dollar, UAE Dirham, Ugandan Shilling, Ukraine Hryvnia, Uruguayan New Peso, Vanuatu Vatu, Venezuelan Bolivar, Vietnam Dong, Yemen Riyal, Zambian Kwacha, Zimbabwe Dollar.

Can you imagine sorting out all of the relationships between each of those currencies and precious metals?

Forex is not for the faint of heart it would seem, but it does make a fascinating topic. In some of the currency names you can see how it relates to world history. I hope you find this article has helped you with at least an explanation of what Forex is and how it works. There is a lot more out there about Forex. Learn more!

Monday, January 9, 2012

The essential aspects of foreign exchange

This is the first in a series of articles that are intending to introduce beginning traders to all the essential aspects of foreign exchange. I will start by identifying and defining the essential aspects of foreign exchange trading, and key components that you will be exposed to as a forex trader.

Forex is an acronym for Foreign Exchange. The foreign exchange is a currency market where currencies are traded. Traders are trading one currency against another. There are very large players in this game such as, large banks, corporations, and countries. There is also the speculative trader. Most individual traders would fit into the speculative category.

Speculative trading focuses on the value of one currency with regard to another. As a speculative trader you focus on or bet on which currencies will go up in value and which ones will go down. Fundamental economic news and political situations play an important roll in the fluctuation in value of a currency for any given country.

Forex is the largest financial market in the world. Daily trading volume exceeds $1.5 trillion. Comparing this to other financial markets such as equities at $50 billion daily trading volume, and the futures market at $30 billion in daily volume you can begin to realize the flexibility and infinite trading liquidity the FOREX has to offer. The FOREX is a 24 hour market. This means flexibility for you as a trader. This market never closes.

You can always find good trading opportunities at your convenience. This is a 24 hour electronic online currency exchange. Currencies are traded in pairs. Meaning when you buy one currency you are selling the cross currency. The position that you take long or short is indicative to how you think that pair will perform.

For example, if you were to buy long USD/GBP, you are betting that the USD (US Dollar) will increase in value against the GBP (Great Britain Pound). You are actually buying the USD and simultaneously selling the GBP. If you were to go short on this pair you would be betting that the USD is going to decrease in value against the GBP.

It can get confusing but fortunately the services that provide the trading platforms from which you will be placing trades will keep track of this for you. Everything is electronic and online, trading is done in real time.

You can watch immediate results of all your trades. These are highly sophisticated programs tracking every movement in the currency market in real time. Part 2 will focus more on currency pairs, trading platforms and charting software.