It's a fact that forex trading became a highly preferable investment method in the last decade. Combined with the internet as a global 24/7 network forex is reachable to everyone. I'll not give you about the basic explanation of forex trading in this article. I'm sure that i don't have to tell what forex trading is. People which familiar or have an interest in an investment know forex already. Don't they?
Forex trading is basically just an investment
As any other investment, there are always benefits and risks beyond forex trading. Many people/organization, especially forex brokers, its affiliate and those who earn their income by providing some forex related services says that forex trading have so much advantages compared to other investments; Forex is easy, with its non-stop 24 hours market, its wide range adjustable leverage, its automated trading platform, its offered better opportunity for income resource, and many more -- you name it as much as you want to...
Blinded by its 'beautiful dream imagination', many small/personal traders, especially for the new ones forgot that forex trading is basically still an investment program. Traders should never have a thought that forex trading is an income resource.
Common Beginner Traders Scenario
Beginner forex traders are usually follow the trend of forex trading without preparing and providing them self with an adequate understanding about what's inside forex trading. Their common scenarios are:
1. Know about forex trading
2. Have an interest in forex trading
3. Looking for an easy and profitable forex services
(Usually by looking for some services with less margin, high leverage, automated trading platform, and less risk? - which is too good to be true)
4. Start gambling with their trades
5. Unable to achieve profits as what their imagination
6. Repeating scenarios 3, 4 and 5
7. Repeating scenarios 3, 4 and 5 again... and again...
8. Realizing that they are loosing too much or that their imagination along these days/weeks/months is wrong (i doubt that it would reach years)
9. Give up and quit their trading for good.
Where did they do wrong in above scenario? Is that wrong to always searching for a better service to back up our trade? In my point of view, there are no mistakes in that scenario at all. But it's just incomplete, and that's the most dangerous mistakes made by most beginner traders.
How to Overcome Traders Mistakes and Begin to Make Some Profits in Forex
The facts are, there are just 5% of forex traders which successes with their trading. To become as they are, we should insert step 2.5 in scenario above. This step will simplify above scenarios by eliminating the fourth and eighth and changing ninth step became TRADERS GOAL ACHIEVED.
2.5 Preparing yourself with a solid basic knowledge of forex trading
- Know about the fundamental of forex trading
- Learn about what and how forex market really is
- Train yourself to getting familiar with the technical analysis in forex trading
- Learn how psychological factor affecting in the trading and define our best trading personality
- Be aware in our risk and money management
- Develop your most effective unique trading system based on your knowledge.
We should keep in mind deeply that forex trading is an investment. There is no way that we could be a master in some investment that we've just dive in to for days or weeks. We have to do it by the right way, and don't forget to eliminate your rush in the goal achievement. You will surely find your best trading system that suits you, I guarantee that. But it would cost you some time for several trial and error system testing while you developing your experience in forex trading.
By using an analogical approach as a computer, forex broker is the application programs and operating system. We do need them to make sure that all we need its done, served and executed properly. But, how good the computerization execution speed and its performance are depends on the basic computer specification, which analogically as you.
How to Get Yourself Completely Forex Prepared
Learning and education materials are world widely spreading around us.
1. The first and the most value added a resource of forex trading is through book reading. Forex and investing categorized books are availabe in countless numbers in many bookstore and online bookstore. You should pick some of them to educate yourself with valuable knowledge of the theory beyond forex trading.
2. Try to get into some traders forum to know more about forex trading and the markets. Forex forum also a place to give you an information for forecasting the crowd psychological factor to forecast the currency price movement by examining on how do other traders react in some financial forex related world events.
3. Get a forex course. An expert forex traders or forex broker are offering this kind of forex educational method. The course are usually about the basic knowledge of forex, technical analysis technique usage and its tools, an expert trading advice or maybe in how to develop a particular tested forex trading system which profitable (if done right and backed by your forex basic knowledge).
4. Forex magazine subscription. Some forex magazines are published weekly, monthly and others might be yearly. These materials usually give you information about the updated forex market behavior overview and analysis which can be use for the input of the fundamental analysis of your forex trading.
Octa is a private investor, an online writer and the owner of a forex trading blog [http://forexocta.blogspot.com]. She owns an online bookstore with a numerous collection of investment related books. Octa also a contributor in some finance categorized blogs.
Showing posts with label Traders. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Traders. Show all posts
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
Sunday, March 18, 2012
Why you need a trading system to succeed-a story of two traders Forex Forex starts now
With whatever field or investment you'd like to take on, there are always tools and resources available to assist you. And this is especially true when it comes to Forex trading. The currency market can be quite overwhelming, and becoming a successful Forex trader does not come from pure luck. There are simply too many factors that can affect the direction that currency prices will move toward.
Here are two important realities to consider:
1. Most newbies try to take on Forex using no assistance or tools. (Most newbies lose all of their money).
2. Most successful traders use a Forex trading system to help them (Successful traders make VERY good money in Forex).
But even with these realities commonly known, still try to attack newbies Forex blind, basing their buying and selling decisions on limited knowledge and experience. It is not until they have lost all of their trading funds that they consider that it probably would have been smarter to invest in a Forex trading system and software from the beginning. Don't make the same mistake. If you want to be successful with currency trading (ie. making consistent profitable trades) then it is highly recommended that you investigate the many Forex trading systems and software on the market.
Let me illustrate further with a story of about two Forex traders:
Tom and Jim have been reading about Forex a lot recently. Both have been spending hours online trying to understand what currency trading is and how (and if) they can make some quick profits. All of the marketing ads that they read say that you can increase your money very, very quickly. Sure, there's some risk involved, but the potential rewards are just too good to pass up. So they both decide to try out Forex and see if they can make a go of it.
Both guys are highly motivated and want to give their best chance in Forex. So each of them is going to invest $ 1000 of their savings into currency trading. If they lose the $ 1000, then they will quit Forex and re-evaluate whether or not to try again in the future. By investing a thousand bucks, both have shown that they are fully committed to making Forex work for them.
Starting Out:
Tom takes his entire $ 1000 and transfers it into a retail online Forex broker. Tom will be making all of his trading decisions on his own. He will be doing his own research and will lurking on Forex forums and blogs to see if he can get some much needed tips.
Jim goes a different route. Although he is just as motivated as Tom, he is also aware of the complexity of the Forex market and realizes that he just doesn't have much experience at this point. So he takes $ 900 and transfers it to the same retail Forex broker as Tom. He saves the remaining $ 100 in order to get access to tools and resources (ie. Forex trading systems and software) to help him make better trades. He used to day trade stocks and knows first hand the edge that these tools and resources can have (especially if you are just learning the ropes).
Month 1:
Tom jumped right into currency trading. His first trade started off in the positive, but quickly went south. Before he could post his sell request, he had lost $ 100. Although he did have some minor profitable trades, overall his trading history was very similar to his first trade. Many trades started off good, but for some reason (that he just didn't have the experience or knowledge to understand), then would eventually trend down. At the end of his first month trading currencies, Tom's trading account was down to $ 400.
Jim, did a little bit of research and found Forex Ambush. This was a membership website that provided its members winning signals. What really caught his eye was that they boldly stated that their trading signals were 99.9% accurate. How could they make such a bold statement? Jim did some more digging and found lots of positive feedback from current members. And there was one more thing that finally swayed Jim into giving Forex Ambush a try: they offered a 7-day trial at a fraction of their normal price.
For less than twenty bucks, Jim had seven days to try out Forex Ambush and their 99.9% accurate trading signals. He was really excited. He had $ 900 in Forex trading account and his still had $ 80 + to use in case Forex Ambush didn't help.
The next day Jim received an email with a trading signal from Forex Ambush. He was still very new to Forex, but with the bold accuracy statement still in his mind, Jim put in his order just as the trading signal specified. When his transaction closed later that day, Jim had made a $ 145 profit. He was very excited! After his 7-day trial ended, Jim went ahead and signed up to be a permanent member of Forex Ambush. Although not every trading signal resulted in profits, almost all of them did. And the losses that he did have were very small. After a month, Jim had $ 1750 in his Forex trading account.
Month 2:
Tom was feeling deflated. Within a month, he had gone from $ 1000 to $ 400. In order to try to make back his money, he did higher valued trades that were risky Versie. The end result: he was down to $ 0 before the month had even ended. Tom was angry and frustrated. He swore off ever doing Forex again, telling anyone that would listen that it was a scam and that they should save their money.
Jim, on the other hand, was on cloud nine. He had turned his initial $ 900 and turned it into $ 1750. He was still getting the daily email from Ambush with the Forex trading signals, but he was also testing out a few other Forex trading systems. After a month of profitable trades, he had a fantastic understand on the Forex market and was full of confidence. By the end of month 2, Jim's trading account was now at $ 2355.
And the most remarkable thing was that Jim was doing all of this in his spare time. He still had a full-time job to cover his living expenses. Everything he made in Forex was extra. He has been contemplating quitting his job and trading Forex on a full-time basis. But for now, he's happy for the stability his current job brings him and is enjoying the benefits that his "side" money in Forex is providing him.
The moral of the story: if you want to succeed at anything that you have very little knowledge and experience with, it is highly recommended that you invest in the tools and resources to maximize your chances of success.
You need to ask yourself: do you want to be like Tom, poor, angry, and swearing that Forex is just a scam? Or would you rather be like Jim, investing in tools to help you succeed and enjoying the profits that those tools will help you make? If you are serious about making money with Forex, then you owe it to yourself to find a Forex trading system that will give you the winning edge.
Want to learn more about a Forex trading system Forex Ambush like?
Click Here to visit my Forex Trading Systems For Beginners blog to get more info on the importance of using Forex tools in order to SKYROCKET your chances of making money with currency trading. You can also read my "No-Holds Barred" review of three of the best Forex products that help traders make money with Forex.
Here are two important realities to consider:
1. Most newbies try to take on Forex using no assistance or tools. (Most newbies lose all of their money).
2. Most successful traders use a Forex trading system to help them (Successful traders make VERY good money in Forex).
But even with these realities commonly known, still try to attack newbies Forex blind, basing their buying and selling decisions on limited knowledge and experience. It is not until they have lost all of their trading funds that they consider that it probably would have been smarter to invest in a Forex trading system and software from the beginning. Don't make the same mistake. If you want to be successful with currency trading (ie. making consistent profitable trades) then it is highly recommended that you investigate the many Forex trading systems and software on the market.
Let me illustrate further with a story of about two Forex traders:
Tom and Jim have been reading about Forex a lot recently. Both have been spending hours online trying to understand what currency trading is and how (and if) they can make some quick profits. All of the marketing ads that they read say that you can increase your money very, very quickly. Sure, there's some risk involved, but the potential rewards are just too good to pass up. So they both decide to try out Forex and see if they can make a go of it.
Both guys are highly motivated and want to give their best chance in Forex. So each of them is going to invest $ 1000 of their savings into currency trading. If they lose the $ 1000, then they will quit Forex and re-evaluate whether or not to try again in the future. By investing a thousand bucks, both have shown that they are fully committed to making Forex work for them.
Starting Out:
Tom takes his entire $ 1000 and transfers it into a retail online Forex broker. Tom will be making all of his trading decisions on his own. He will be doing his own research and will lurking on Forex forums and blogs to see if he can get some much needed tips.
Jim goes a different route. Although he is just as motivated as Tom, he is also aware of the complexity of the Forex market and realizes that he just doesn't have much experience at this point. So he takes $ 900 and transfers it to the same retail Forex broker as Tom. He saves the remaining $ 100 in order to get access to tools and resources (ie. Forex trading systems and software) to help him make better trades. He used to day trade stocks and knows first hand the edge that these tools and resources can have (especially if you are just learning the ropes).
Month 1:
Tom jumped right into currency trading. His first trade started off in the positive, but quickly went south. Before he could post his sell request, he had lost $ 100. Although he did have some minor profitable trades, overall his trading history was very similar to his first trade. Many trades started off good, but for some reason (that he just didn't have the experience or knowledge to understand), then would eventually trend down. At the end of his first month trading currencies, Tom's trading account was down to $ 400.
Jim, did a little bit of research and found Forex Ambush. This was a membership website that provided its members winning signals. What really caught his eye was that they boldly stated that their trading signals were 99.9% accurate. How could they make such a bold statement? Jim did some more digging and found lots of positive feedback from current members. And there was one more thing that finally swayed Jim into giving Forex Ambush a try: they offered a 7-day trial at a fraction of their normal price.
For less than twenty bucks, Jim had seven days to try out Forex Ambush and their 99.9% accurate trading signals. He was really excited. He had $ 900 in Forex trading account and his still had $ 80 + to use in case Forex Ambush didn't help.
The next day Jim received an email with a trading signal from Forex Ambush. He was still very new to Forex, but with the bold accuracy statement still in his mind, Jim put in his order just as the trading signal specified. When his transaction closed later that day, Jim had made a $ 145 profit. He was very excited! After his 7-day trial ended, Jim went ahead and signed up to be a permanent member of Forex Ambush. Although not every trading signal resulted in profits, almost all of them did. And the losses that he did have were very small. After a month, Jim had $ 1750 in his Forex trading account.
Month 2:
Tom was feeling deflated. Within a month, he had gone from $ 1000 to $ 400. In order to try to make back his money, he did higher valued trades that were risky Versie. The end result: he was down to $ 0 before the month had even ended. Tom was angry and frustrated. He swore off ever doing Forex again, telling anyone that would listen that it was a scam and that they should save their money.
Jim, on the other hand, was on cloud nine. He had turned his initial $ 900 and turned it into $ 1750. He was still getting the daily email from Ambush with the Forex trading signals, but he was also testing out a few other Forex trading systems. After a month of profitable trades, he had a fantastic understand on the Forex market and was full of confidence. By the end of month 2, Jim's trading account was now at $ 2355.
And the most remarkable thing was that Jim was doing all of this in his spare time. He still had a full-time job to cover his living expenses. Everything he made in Forex was extra. He has been contemplating quitting his job and trading Forex on a full-time basis. But for now, he's happy for the stability his current job brings him and is enjoying the benefits that his "side" money in Forex is providing him.
The moral of the story: if you want to succeed at anything that you have very little knowledge and experience with, it is highly recommended that you invest in the tools and resources to maximize your chances of success.
You need to ask yourself: do you want to be like Tom, poor, angry, and swearing that Forex is just a scam? Or would you rather be like Jim, investing in tools to help you succeed and enjoying the profits that those tools will help you make? If you are serious about making money with Forex, then you owe it to yourself to find a Forex trading system that will give you the winning edge.
Want to learn more about a Forex trading system Forex Ambush like?
Click Here to visit my Forex Trading Systems For Beginners blog to get more info on the importance of using Forex tools in order to SKYROCKET your chances of making money with currency trading. You can also read my "No-Holds Barred" review of three of the best Forex products that help traders make money with Forex.
Monday, December 5, 2011
More Secret Forex-Forex 90-95% of traders lose their deposits
B. Williams quotes 5 bullets killing a trend, whereas I exemplify their insufficiency and I add up 11 more thereto, not denying the above 5 of them.
B. Williams idealizes the Elliott wave theory, whereas I show that the combination of fives and threes is none the idealizable, otherwise a mankind 100-year development project could have long been elaborated on the basis of Elliott waves pattern, leading to exasperation at the fact that humanity progress does not follow Elliott and Williams. The other thing is that nowadays brokers have mastered the job of manufacturing more waves out of the 5 initially.
The aforesaid is applicable to each of the 20 problems of Forex.
A portion of my live Forex trading methods are to be found in this book, while the other portion thereof is forwarded upon request. Those eager to continue training under my supervision as well as to trade live, please, feel free to contact me on my e-mail address below.
It all could be funny unless it were sad. But IT IS sad, because the above examples are scaring in number. Bearing it in mind, do, go again through excerpts from distinguished scholars books:
- Awesome Oscillator (AO) serves us keys from the Wonderland;
- Accelerator Oscillator (AC) gives us with significant superiority over other traders;
- using AO is similar to reading tomorrow's "Wall Street Journal", while using AC is reading of the day-after-tomorrow's issue thereof;
- by using AO solely, one may attain profits even without any knowledge of current rate; should the oscillator turn down, one may merely ring one's broker and say: "Sell at the market price!".
As You have guessed, these are extracts from B. Williams's "New aspects of Exchange Trade". Have You read the thing? And now, please, give a glance to the a foregoing figure, depicting the way, the vaunted Williams's indicators may entail an abyss of losses.
But what truly makes my blood boil is as follows. B. Williams is a professional psycho therapist and his narrative style is none of an incidental one. This is a suggestive method by virtue whereof he attempts to demonstrate the exclusive, correct and faultless nature of his trading technique. The "faultlessness" is to be discussed in an individual chapter, and my only claim here is that I can easily draw hundreds of examples, where one can bump into loss by way of following Williams's indicators.
By myself, I am an advocate of theory of chaos. But this theory is disclosed by Williams in a very primitive and a superficial manner, which fact results in his blind follower losses. As to the author, he resorts to propaganda methods instead of providing a clearcut distinction between the cases, where the above theory is 100% effective and those, where it is not.
Williams could have explained to his admirers directly, that in these certain instances the theory is to be relied upon, while in these instances it is not to. The difference is in this, this and this. In the former instances one should necessarily enter, whereas in the latter instances one should abstain from entry. But the guy haven't done the job (due to either not being desirous or to not having sufficient knowledge).
I was a success in finding out distinct operability criteria of the Williams's technique. To achieve this, I had to improve the Alligator, by virtue whereof I enabled my students to easily pinpoint the difference between the Williams No.1 option (a trend, encouraging profits) and No.2 option (a flat, inflictive of losses).
By the by, it is supportive of the chaos theory methodological correctness and of imperfect Williams's method structure, plotted on the basis thereof. Instead of acting upon the trader's consciousness Williams resorts to forbidden subconscious programming procedures, thus stimulating man's inherent and acquired instincts as if saying: "If You wanna get rich, follow me! My method empowers one to trade without a single glance at a price! The Awesome Oscillator constitutes a key from a Kingdom!" Etc., etc., etc...
Hence, only 1 of 20 Williams's followers exhibits Forex-earning capabilities in a most favorable environment. Thus, under this statistics, B. Williams is better not to be idolized, the way he has been by the crowd of his admirers. On the other hand, other Forex maestros' trading techniques are far worse than that of B. Williams. So, let's continue illustrating Forex truisms being erroneous in live trading.
- The "Theory of Chaos" of B. Williams. The author has not advised what should be added up thereto. A separate chapter here is dedicated to the issue.
- Trader's psychological problems. I haven't found any revelations pertaining to THE WAYS OF ELIMINATING THESE PROBLEMS.
- The issue of a stop-loss order is certainly important: even under trend hedging is an indispensable protective shield against market surprise. But is the problem too far complicated to require a dozen pages' elucidation? Has the author beheld any secret? Wah! He hasn't noticed anything but he still has repeated all that wanders from book to book on Forex.
Once I was stunned by a question put forward by one of my students after having read B. Williams's "Trading Chaos": what's the use of giving so much attention to the stop-loss problem and above all what's the good of chewing over the role of safety cushions in the automobile industry as though readers are down with minority?
Doubtlessly, it's funny reading that Williams has never violated traffic regulations, priding himself on the occasion. Any psychiatrist could tell a hell lot about such a personality type, although, I should admit that Williams is American, not Russian.
Drawing picturesque, memorizing examples, each scholar is right to insist on protective barrier placement as a loss killer. But there is hardly anyone to introduce certain novelty into the issue and to disclose the secret as to what there should be in the trader's store besides a stop-loss to insure against his deposit melting and extra losses. A separate chapter here is targeted at the issue.
I have shortly come across an aphorism: "Genius is not to the effect, that nothing can be added thereto, but it is to the effect that nothing can be deleted there from".
If You go through numerous books on Forex at this aspect angle, You are sure to surprisingly find out that 90-100% of their contents may be subject to withdrawal. WHY?
BECAUSE nothing new and 100% correct is offered therein. Instead, reiteration is going on of what is familiar to any professional, since everyone is itching to exhibit one's originality by way of retelling: a paramount authority of FA over Forex exchange rates; continuation and reversal patterns; a stop-loss importance; a divergence being a component of a trend reversal, etc., i.e. book-to-book travelers.
"An outstanding Forex trading techniques" and "a genius scholar", etc., making their appearance in books' abstracts and annotations are off springs of 1% originality added up by an author to 99% of common knowledge.
Sale is publisher's primary target, giving birth to "genius" mediocrities and plagiarism. Standing separately among these books are opuses by B. Williams, being admired and scrutinized regularly by the majority of scholars and by myself. But EVEN HE cannot be qualified as "genius" with account to the above formula. He is rather "eccentric" than "genius".
The thing is not, that his technique is addenda-allowing (this fact backs the correct Williams's choice of the chaos theory to be applied to Forex) and I easily managed to add 11 trend-assassinating bullets to the 5 of Williams. The thing is that a number of Williams's postulates ARE WRONG and thus loss- inflictive. These can be and should be subject to removal.
CONCLUSION: I guess, it's understandable by now, that script-writing has turned to be business for scholars, incorporating additional advertising and additional charges for their students. However, the above is not worth millions Forex losers sacrifice.
Much more respect-triggering is Warren Buffet, having made a minimum of USD40 bn at the stock market without writing any books on his trading tactics. W. Buffet is the world's second-rich man after Bill Gates, although this fact being thoroughly doubtable. B. Gates is supposed to declare the whole of his income obtainable from the Microsoft Corporation, whereas W. Buffet, being a trader, is sure to deem himself entitled to show the Inland Revenue what he really wants to.
The difference is fairly evident. The profit obtained from US companies, constituting the Gates official fortune major portion, may be kept track of, as well as the offshore profits may sometimes be properly checked. But Buffet's profits attractable at all. Do You expect a man, lending his own daughter a sum of USD20 against a receipt, to allow ALL of his profits to be taxable by state? Or a moderate portion of profits is sufficient, yeah? It is entirely his job, whereas we are to learn to gain at least a spoonful of what he has acquired during 40 years of his activity at the stock exchange.
Thus, to cut it short: a classical Forex literature exhibits but an anti-scientific unsystematic nature, constituting a "crise de genre" and triggering losses among 90% of beginners, abandoning Forex market.
In what does science differ from a philistine and amateur effort? In a systematic and objective nature, in a methodology perspective. In there any of the above to be found with scholar literature on Forex? No, but instead there is in abundance:
A. Tautology and absence of new approaches. From book to book world-distinguished scholars feed traders (as if the latter were silly little chaps) with stories about R&S levels importance, technical indicators, continuation and reversal patterns, etc., which is as interesting and instructive for a professional trader as ABC reading is for a professor of philology.
B. Absence of integrity. Individually, it is all clear: Elliot waves, Fibonacci levels, resistance levels, reversal patterns, etc. But what's the way it all is interconnected and integrated? In what way it is influential over each other? What is primary and what is secondary? Imagine a doctor diagnoses and cures patients without a slightest idea of interaction of digestive, cardio-vascular and other systems.
This is what exactly happens to Forex beginners. They are sure to have learnt something, but they are being muddleheaded instead of having a systematic knowledge. Medical students undergo a course of anatomy. Geologists and military men make use of topographic maps. And what do Forex beginners have to this end? You are free to interrogate any scientist if he has knowledge of parts of science without having knowledge of the whole. Guess, what he's gonna answer? And now give consideration to what is being currently published on Forex and being accessible to anyone. Thereafter You will easily "evaluate" the "outstanding contribution" made by each of Forex scholars.
4. Methodology and techniques subjectivism and absence of objectivity. See live scholar, Th. Demark's "Technical Analysis As An Emerging Science" recommending to manually draw R&S lines from the right to the left instead of so previously doing from the left to the right. The book's preface qualifies it to be "refined techniques built during a quarter of a century of a laborious scrutiny of market tendencies and projecting methods". And thereinafter: "Demark's empiric-data strictly scientific approaches are in striking difference from an artistic intuitive one thus constituting a rational basis for dynamic systems, mechanically outputting market signals." But, with having not disclosed his system's essence, is Demark aware that his subjective Forex trading suggestions may happen to entail severe mistakes. Yeah, he substantiates his viewpoint in chapter "Why price projections may not go into effect": "...due to no technique being perfect". Good a science with "no technique being perfect"!
Demark is looking rather a philosopher, than a trader with his tirade being nothing but a sophism, made use of as back as in ancient Greece to provide grounds and protection for any kind of absurd.
In accordance to Demark, "a mistake becomes obvious the next day as soon, as the first deal price is registered". I am itching to ask the scholar: "How many points may a currency travel in a wrong direction during an earth day?" I am answering myself: 100 pts or 200 pts or more. Demark diagnoses: "This instance evidences a breach, indicative of a new opposite tendency". Well, I've got it.
Once there is loss, one should loss-close and enter oppositely.
Take a look at the picture below:
Fig.10. EURUSD H1 chart as of March, 22 - April, 18, 2005 manifesting a month-long flat. (See Note below)
How many days should one per-Demark loss-close with the rate repeatedly swiveling as though to Demark's ill luck? The scholar has to be asked, how large should a trader's deposit be to survive Demark's experiments, being ranked "refined techniques" and "strictly scientific approaches", "cardinally different from others' ", less scientific ones, as I can guess.
The opus author will again fall soothing upon You: "One oughtn't to expect herein outlined technical methods and indicators to offer profits and not to entail losses. Forex trading involves both: a profit opportunity and a loss risk. Preceding results are in no way guarantor of perspective success". Further on, with greater cynicism and hypocrisy: "Should You be seeking a trading panacea, put this book aside: it's in no way helpful to You". Well, what's the use of buying the book at such price?
Demark, by the way, gives the interpretation of his book's objective to be "fuelling readers with methodology, encouraging one to systematize various TA techniques". Great! I thought, it were a new discovery of Forex regularities to be delivered to traders. But it looks, like the scholar has plunged himself into systematizing earlier 50%-correct discoveries without taking any pertinent responsibility.
Hence, no avail to purchase the book and to litter one's brain therewith, since Forex rates enjoy 50/50 up-down travel chance, even under the probability theory.
Thus, not too much understandable, where Demark's scientific approach manifestation is to be searched, whereas the essence of things is incomprehensible once the reversal results come evident after an earth day only with no reference to his book.
John G. Murphy, another Forex scholar, outlines in the preface, that the "less art - more science" slogan is specially topical now that greater entities begin taking interest in this area.
As to myself, I have truly appreciated the preface writer Murphy joke as being filled with subtleness and tristesse.
Now, pertaining to science-to-practice correlation and theoretical conclusions implementation... How many scholars of those hundreds referred hereto resort to live examples while teaching long and short entries and close ups thereof? Very few of them:
- B. Williams "Trading Chaos", "New aspects of Exchange Trading";
- J. Murphy "TA of Futures Markets"
- S. Nisson "Japanese candlesticks. Financial markets graphic analysis"
- A. Elder "Basics of Exchange Trading"
- L. Williams. "Long-Term Secrets of Short Term Trade"
- Ch. Lebo, D. Lukas "Computer Analysis of Futures Markets"
- D. Swagger "TA, Comprehensive Course"
... and hardly few more.
Disappointing enough, but it is fairly lucid why 90% of beginners mutate into failures and abandon Forex.
By way of getting familiar with the SYSTEM, one will suddenly realize how smooth are Forex artifacts to get apparent one from another, e.g.: M5 Elliott waves constituting M15 wave I, this wave being but H1 and H4 corrective within certain Fibonacci levels.
One gets clear vision of what all the Forex-traded currencies are doing now and what they are going to in half a day. Williams did have grounds to claim, he needs several tens of minutes to analyze tens of charts. He DID have understood Forex as a system, though he has offered but the system components portrayal in his books. Depending on where utilized, the Alligator may appear to be responsible either for a profit or for a loss. But Williams has not even taken pains to present a differentiation between the Alligator being a profit assistant and the Alligator being a loss bringer.
The above is conditioned by the Williams Alligator being a great TA tool, but pertaining to a certain AREA OF Forex only. Other areas require other TA facilities. I will do my best to teach You to effect proper estimation of long-term and super short-term entries being appropriate for the moment.
I will also dwell on why it is not difficult to add extra 11 trend-killing bullets to the 5 of Williams's; why it is easy to build up a currency travel vector daily projection. The whole thing is minimized to several criteria, being constantly effective irrespective of currency intentions. As a result, You will not have to monthly pay quacking mountebanks' impotent daily forecasts.
But now let's move on with Forex scientific criteria. Stagnation and dogmatism are alternative attributes of Forex folios' anti-scientific substance. Have You ever come across a criticism of any Forex-oriented theory? I mean a weighed objective criticism, assigning credits to the author for elaborating a revolutionary theory, which has by now got obsolete due to a number of objective reasons and thus requires improvement, i.e. replacement.
For instance, I have found nothing of the kind in relation to the 100-year old Dow theory, originally incorporative of benign principles. But life goes on, and there seems no reason to head-hammer life-rectified Dow's postulates:
- a long-term trend (primary, basic as per Dow) being several years long. Curious enough to spot a currency pair to stand open for so a long period;
- a medium-term trend (intermediate tendency) being several months long. As per Dow, the MTT is opposite (corrective) to the basic trend;
- a short-term trend, not exceeding 3 weeks and incarnating minor fluctuations within the intermediate tendency;
- intraday trend being per-Dow midget ripples, not worth paying attention to.
You are now welcome to take a close look at the figures below, as of October, 2004 through March, 2005.
Fig.11. EURUSD D1 chart. (See Note below)
Fig.12. GBPUSD D1 chart. (See Note below)
CONCLUSION: This theory of Dow's might be deemed effective rather till late 80s, than presently.
Nowadays, with 3 pips spread, 50-200 pips pullbacks and trends not exceeding a week, the Dow theory
MUST BE recognized as being despairingly obsolete and trader-hostile, since, under a 3-pip spread, it is, certainly, top of recklessness and stupidity to stand open for months or years. A different trend classification is to be called for, meeting updated Forex environment standards.
I guess there's no need to continue being proponent of the fact that presently Forex theories are obsolete in their majority, with this sort of methodology being requisite for analysts rather than for traders. As opposed, I hold it more appropriate to forward my entry and exit technique to traders willing to conduct successful and loss-safe trading.
By way of prompting: please, attempt to view Forex as a system inclusive of components being familiar to You: Elliott waves, reversal patterns, Fibonacci levels, MAs, ally currencies, etc. All the above staff is integrally intercommunicative rather than existing individually, the way, each organ is in the human body.
I DID have understood it, and I realized the way B. Williams is able to analyze tens of currencies within tens of minutes in order to execute correct long and short entries.
It may look surprising to someone, but a qualified doctor is capable to diagnose Your body hazards after a short examination and talking to You. The doctor has actually examined but several organs, but his knowledge system has empowered him to jump at wider conclusions, as Williams at Forex.
GROSS TOTAL. Steady and regular Forex profits are real opportunity. There is hardly another area which enables one to knock up a fortune without having rich aged relatives abroad, without having to join one's native country's throughout corruptible authorities or else. If You have discovered THAT ANOTHER area, You are free to get engaged therein. Then, Forex is not likely to be requisite.
Forex Secret - Forex Literature As A 90-95% Of The Traders Lose Their Deposit
This delusion globally entails identical aftermaths: 90-95% of traders turn steady to lose their deposits having studied books by Bill Williams, Alexander Elder, Thomas Demark, J. Schwager, et al.
Following the burn down of their first deposit trader's plunge themselves again into scrutinizing Forex scholars, in this manner suffering losses of the second, the third and subsequent deposit. I will hereinafter try to elucidate where from the above regularity grows, so that no trader repeats his forerunners' mistakes.
This statistics is common knowledge: 90% of traders constitute Forex losers... But the figure has always been giving rise to a leviathan of my doubts. It isn't because of somewhat different 95%-5% loser-to-winner ratio quoted in the Van Tarp and Brian June "Intraday trading: secrets of mastership". With 90% quoted universally, there naturally emerges the question, as to whether there is someone capable to check, to specify or to disprove the above figure.
NO ONE IS, besides the directors of largest Western banks providing streamline Forex quotes, but having never raised the issue.
WHY? Because should this statistics be published, there will be sharp and ultimate decline in number of those chasing easy profits from the world Forex market. Otherwise banks would not keep mum in advertising purposes. Neither would they be silent if losers constituted at least by few points less than 90%. In any advertising, customer attraction is ensured by quoting beneficial maxima and non-lucrative minima. This has always been, is being and will always be a universal practice.
As a conclusion, 10% Forex winners is a maximum result among traders. It's them, who have understood Forex market absolutely simple truisms and who attained steady daily earnings in amounts being gained by others within years or even the whole of life.
Certainly, those are to be recollected, who in late 80s were the first in the ex-USSR to grasp laws of commerce and who began accumulating their initial stock. The rules used to be so simple that presently any schoolboy or a first-year student can show the way the capital might have been easily scraped up and augmented on the USSR debris and in the course of market relations being established in the post-Soviet space.
I do exactly allow for the fact that through the years a new generation will be laughing at the way we are now incapable to comprehend the laws, where under currency rates either spike up or fall down, all of a sudden.
With this provision, those seeking fast money at Forex have a much greater time limit than the ones engaged in capital building in the post-Soviet space (Forex market is incommensurably greater than that in the ex-USSR), but not to the extent thought by many.
By now trends are thoroughly less numerous than they used to be 10-20 years ago. By way of taking a glance the charts history You are in the position to understand the way traders used to earn under 20- 40 pts spread, commission and slippage. A trend was followed by a trend at that epoch.
AND WHAT'S NOW? Nowadays many of traders are impotent to gain under 3 pts spread without commission and slippage.
Thus, this book is intended for those willing to perceive Forex market laws.
In order to get understanding of the way 5-10% of successful traders obtain profits, let's at the outset analyze the reasons and the way the outstanding 90% of traders suffer losses. The 90%-figure looks scaring, to say nothing of 95% or 98%. It occurs despite the amount of literature on the issue equals to hundreds of fundamental books, written by authors, having gained capitals expressed by means of more than 7-digit figures (G. Soros, B. Williams, A. Elder, T. Demark).
Thus, the above minimum of 90% of smart, well-read, broad-knowledged people:
- scrutinize the really great traders' heritage;
- open accounts with Forex Broker's and banks, start trading and...
- loose funds up to complete rout!
AND WHERE'S THE LOGIC? The answer springs to mind by itself... There's something wrong in the literature (by the way, recognized throughout the world, where the deposit-killing statistics is as disappointing as it is in our country) so long as its studying yields such oppressive results.
STRANGE? No, rather natural, than strange on account of the following:
1. Being a great trader is not indicative of everyone being a great teacher.
2. Multitude of rules elaborated by scholars 10-40 years ago, has grown obsolete, since the Forex market is changing.
3. The scholars HAVE NOT revealed ALL the secrets even WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE THEN
FOREX, therefore by now their advice and recommendation turn out either obsolete or naïve.
Thus, once one's advice and recommendations bring every 9 of 10 market participants to loose their money in each country, where one's books have used to be published and have enjoyed all sorts of hosanna in the press, THEN ONE IS NONE OF A TEACHER.
Naturally, no trader will reveal his professional secrets to the full. But when studying Forex literature one gets astonished by a negligible extent the above secrets are "confided" at all, with a book on Forex containing 99% of common truth and 1% only of useful novelties. But should one train up even several thousands perspective traders, one will in no way burden oneself with competitors, due to the Forex market huge sale nature. Beyond a shadow of a doubt the above traders are really great. You may agree or not, but anyone, having earned USD1 bn or more, deserves being named "great". So, one's books should be published as memoirs. I am not attaching any irony hereto, since these persons have acquired gains by virtue of their minds and labor, as opposite to Rockfellers, who inherited their fortunes or to Russian oligarchs, who either stole or got their capitals dirt-cheap from state authorities.
Hopefully, understandable is the difference between such editions and manuals for beginners.
G. Kasparov, say, is far from writing manuals for chess beginners, since the job can be better completed by others with this fact not at all undermining Kasparov's being a great chess player. And his advice and recommendation is sure to be of interest rather to a close circle of grand masters, than to those having touched the chess for the first time.
Actually Kasparov is but to be respected for not being tempted by the lust for fast money, by virtue of his name in the chess world and by way of cooking up manuals for beginners.
At Forex, by contrast, and for some reason, everyone deems oneself a teacher, which fact results in millions educated people worldwide leaving stock market being disappointed, angry with an inferiority complex life-time pursuit.
And hence, the unanswered question for them: is that all a fraud or not, since gains are midget, whereas losses are titanic?
I am recalling the book titled "The Alchemy of Finance" by G. Soros (the one I've read in early 90-s). I admit, it's interesting, instructive..., but it is all narrated in so an inarticulate and tangled manner. As indicated in the foreword by an American investor, the theory has hardly been understood by few only.
So what's the use of writing in such a manner? A theory may generally be complicated to any extent, BUT IT MUST BE wrapped in a simple, clear and understandable wording.
You are welcome to attempt to read the above book once You have time to. Shortly, the Soros reflexivity theory of the countries' cyclic development may easily bear a couple-sentence confinement:
1. Following liberation from totalitarian yoke, a country is granted credits, then, there is a rapid growth and flourish of economy.
2. As soon as the above credits are to be paid back, a country's economy faces a natural recession.
Is it as difficult? The question may be addressed to a schoolboy (to say nothing of an American investor): when should those countries' companies' shares be purchased and when they are to be advantageously sold in order to acquire maximum profit? What's going to happen in case one is too late to sell the shares, shortly exhibiting an impetuous growth in price?
Propounded long before, the Soros theory has been entirely corroborated in August, 98 by the dismal practice established in Asian and Pacific countries and later in Russia.
There still is another question: how inarticulate should Soros have been to enable his theory to be grasped by few only?
The second part of the book is not worth retelling. Reading its original is sure to be much more instructive with my annotation leaving no conundrums therein.
The theory is permeated by Soros's strategy: enter long on what's shortly going to enjoy price growth with a 100% probability and "pull out" Your money along with profits before the companies enter crisis, thus facilitating bankruptcies thereof.
This is the way I clearly lecture my students on Forex-related complexities, thus conveying my logics to them. Despite its own complexities (news, TA, corrective actions, etc.), Forex is essentially reduced to a very simple truth: at a certain moment one should not be late with going long or short on a currency with "tertium non datum".
And when asked if the Williams Alligator needs something to be added thereto, the majority of my students reply "Yes!", indicating what exactly is to be added.
I'll present a detailed vivisection of the issue in a separate chapter by way of proving that the Williams Alligator is but 50% effective.
Fig. 4. H1 EUR chart as of April 12, 2005. (See Note below)
The Alligator's jaws display upward opening with a fractal formed at 1.3006. According to Williams, one should enter long one point higher, i.e. at 1.3007. Upward motion continues extra 11 points. Then the rate sharply swivels to fall down by 170 pts.
Another example.
Fig. 5. H1 EUR chart as of April 22, 2005. (See Note below)
Please, figure out 1.3094, 16 pts above the previous fractal, following the Alligator upward opening. Thereafter, a sharp down swivel covering 140 pts.
Hundreds of similar examples may be drawn. But what are the implications?
With the Alligator's mouth opened, 50% of entries should be pro-Williams while the outstanding 50% - counter-Williams (i.e. vectored opposite to the Alligator mouth opening). When embarking on Forex, You must possess clear knowledge of the difference between either of the above 50%-portions. Otherwise..., You are doomed to loose even if You follow Williams's technique, let alone other ones.
Even my students are in the position to advise what is to be added to Alligator in order to realize proper entry vectoring. Least of all would I want this example to be taken as a personal criticism of Bill Williams, whose contribution to the Forex theory is a significant one. And the majority of traders, like me, used to begin earning after studying HIS books. But not to go astray..., even without any addenda Williams managed to make a tremendous fortune, since a skilled trader (moreover being the Alligator's father) is capable to differentiate between a steady travel and a pullback, or, say, a flat, or, visa versa, a trend low for the entry to be vectored oppositely. It is all fairly understandable for an experienced trader. But what about beginners as regards their interpretation of a flat, a recovery or a trend change?
These folks are sure to require assistance, especially, in information not presented in literature on Forex.
Without this knowledge a trader will never perceive the ABCs of stable daily earnings. But why the Forex scholars do not clear out the issue? This query is to be addressed to them, not to me. While reading these opuses, I am getting horrified at the fact that we are being foisted expensive high-sounding titled books, which are not going to ever teach a trader how to attain profits at the market.
Let's open one of them (E. Nayman's "Trader's Minor Encyclopedia" and "Master-trading: Secret Files") to get the understanding of the way almost all the books on Forex are written and supposed to have the price of USD20-100.
You may agree or not, but the name looks very beautiful and pretentious: "Master-trading: Secret Files", 320 pages of sheer secrets...
HOWEVER, I HAVEN'T FOUND ANY SECRETS THERE! You are welcome to discuss an argue Yourself:
1. "The interrelation between fundamental factors and exchange rate dynamics" being a detailed story of how a country's macroeconomic growing, benign rumors trading and political stability promote the exchange rate growth.
A "valuable" secret to be practically encountered in any Forex edition. But below is a real FA secret (not paid any attention to by Nayman): why does currency use to reverse against its country's economic news? A whole chapter here will be dedicated to the issue.
2. "Construction of two moving averages on a single chart and twin combinations thereof". The author furnishes a "wise" recommendation: entries should be made in the direction the MAs diverge (adding secretly that the most effective MA combination is 21, 55, 89, etc., as per Fibonacci).
The pseudo-secret nature of the above recommendation underlies the fact that any MA combination (should it be 21+55, as the author's; 10+20 as in many Western trading systems; 5+8+13 as per B. Williams or 1+21 as used by numerous traders) yields the same results.
Ok. It all looks great. However, E. Nayman et al., seem to have circumvented the MA intersection chief secret, through which traders suffer constant losses: a "lighter" MA has crossed a "heavier" one, say, upwards, but... thereafter there is sharp downturn resulting in the MAs intersection again.
Fig. 6. GBPUSD H1 chart as of April, 21-26, 2005. (See Note below)
A fivefold reciprocating crossing of MA 21 and 55. You are welcome to calculate traders' losses.
Now, let's call it a day with examples. The MA intersection technique operates perfectly in certain circumstances, while turning out impotent in others, thus inflicting losses upon traders. No criteria have ever been stipulated by Forex scholars as to entries to be effected pro- or counter-divergence of moving averages.
3. MACD construction and analysis. What sort of secret may one expect from the following statement of Nayman's: "a subsequent high being lower than the preceding one suggests a bullish trend depletion or even its changing with the same being visa versa under minimum MACD values". Much of a secret, isn't it? I thought it were the MACD operation principle, familiar to any Forex novice. The secret-fancier B. Williams hasn't even taken effort to advise to perform inputs change from 9, 12, 26 into 5, 34, 5 to provide for a lag killer.
Assuming the above, authentic MACD secrets are not paid any attention to by scholar, which fact inflicts losses upon traders. The situation comes into effect, when upon a divergence formation, no trend change is observed with another same-trend wave taking place instead.
Fig. 7. GBPUSD H1 chart as of April, 2005, where MA21 crosses MA55 with slight rise and sharp downturn. (See Note below)
Another example:
Fig. 8. GBPUSD H1 chart as of May, 2005: a divergence with MA10 upward crossing MA21; a brief nudge up to 1.8916 and a sharp downturn. (See Note below)
As different from Nayman and other Forex scholars, we'll touch in detail upon the ways to detect when MACD is trustworthy as a trend reversal attribute and when it is not.
4. TA classical patterns. One can not help smiling at the author sharing a secret of "head'n'shoulders" and "double bottom" patterns, being studied by beginners at the earliest lectures on Forex.
And here goes a real key secret: in what cases the patterns are indeed indicative of a reversal but in what cases brokers trap TA pattern-fanciers? Is there someone doubting the fact that patterns are known not only to traders, but as well to brokers with their mouths watering to make a rod for the backs of lovers and connoisseurs of the above patterns, just like on the sample chart below:
Fig. 9. GBPUSD H1 chart as of May, 09-11, 2005, a classical "inverted H&S" (See Note below)
At 1.8871 there's an impetuous upward breakthrough, the Alligator rotating upwards, MACD above zero, MA8 having intersected MA21 upwards, the Williams vaunted Awesome Oscillator signaling long entry, the Accelerator Oscillator pointing up... nevertheless, the rate reaches as far as 1.8916 and slips down to 1.8481 by 450 pts.
To be noted: much worth scrutinizing is the phenomenon of Nayman's "Trader's Minor Encyclopedia" and "Master-trading: secret files" purported at understanding why over 90% of traders turn losers after reading the books.
The solution, to my mind, is that the above opuses are but good "ABCs OF FOREX" thus giving birth to all Nayman's merits and demerits.
The guy is primarily awardable for having spared beginners' paying USD50-200 to various Forex training courses or academies. Instead, one can download and study Nayman's books, whose extracts are, by the way, quoted to trainees during their studies.
Nayman is generally to be expressed gratitude to, because of his having laid out the Forex basic course in a competent, popular and accessible way.
This is the point, I elucidate to every beginner, being introduced to me: first one should scrutinize Nayman's books, then only it's worth discussing hooks and crooks of earning at Forex instead of loosing.
Nevertheless, there is a chief Nayman's self-delusion about his folios really being in no way secret files with no one being able to find anything new to enable oneself to improve one's Forex earnings. These books containing neither unique techniques nor non-standard solutions are famous for the generalization and systematization of what has been the Forex knowledge prior to Nayman.
But this fact is not realized by majority gripped by the "Master-trading: Secret Files" fascination, who open live accounts and turn losers inevitably.
Shortly upon their pre-mature success on demo accounts these folks hastened to open live accounts and faced losses. But since the Dealers' staff managed to convince them in the incidental nature of the above losses, the folks ventured to go live again and did again turn to be deposit killers.
With these facts being proclaimed, I don't hold it appropriate to call any statistics science for help. Any sensible man is to get the understanding of the above losses as not being of an incidental nature.
There could be NO OTHER WAY about it.
The next trader training level comprises books by B. Williams: "Trading Chaos" and "New aspects of exchange trading", where the author propounds his own Forex trading methods along with advertising the other ones', viz. Elliott's.
My book, "Secrets Of Craftsmanship Narrated By Professional Trader Or What B. Williams and E. Nayman Have Concealed From Traders" is purported at developing of THAT particular school of training traders to practical operation at Forex.
Hardly will anyone object to the fact that B. Williams will disclose his Forex intimacies free of charge. Neither will he furnish their 100% disclosure after being paid to.
In all his splendor, Williams possessed sufficient knowledge to;
- to share A PORTION of his secrets in his "Trading Chaos";
- to share A PORTION of his secrets as a paid training;
- not to share A PORTION of his secrets in the least.
My book, "Secrets Of Craftsmanship Narrated By Professional Trader Or What B. Williams and E. Nayman Have Concealed From Traders" is also dedicated to teaching how the Williams secret methods are to be decoded properly to ensure successful Forex trading capabilities.
Each of my book's 20 chapters is permeated with a common logic aimed at finding relevant discrepancies in literature on Forex and at presenting my personal technique of Forex trading.
B. Williams declares being capable of analyzing tens of currency pairs (of 140-bar history each) that within tens of minutes, but in no way does he explain how to, whereas, I explain, that it's feasible for any wide-screen trader, provided my computer monitor being 3-currency capable only (see: "Ally and adversary currencies").
B. Williams sings about his magic Alligator, while I disclose and eliminate its pitfalls by, say, adding a MA233 thereto. This arrangement visualizes the whole of the 4 potential currency travel options: up/down above MA233; up/down under MA233.
B. Williams lists a stop-loss to be a "safety cushion", whereas I disclose and eliminate its shortcomings by way of alternatively using my own pending orders.
B. Williams hold trades volume to be authentic resistance breakthrough criterion, while I quote reasons by which trades volume turns to be deceptive on Metatrader platforms (thanks to the banks Consortium) and I introduce my own levels true/false breach criteria.
Now, regarding trading on news, I demonstrate the way one can turn a loser if trade like all the others and I offer my own on-news trading style.
Following the burn down of their first deposit trader's plunge themselves again into scrutinizing Forex scholars, in this manner suffering losses of the second, the third and subsequent deposit. I will hereinafter try to elucidate where from the above regularity grows, so that no trader repeats his forerunners' mistakes.
This statistics is common knowledge: 90% of traders constitute Forex losers... But the figure has always been giving rise to a leviathan of my doubts. It isn't because of somewhat different 95%-5% loser-to-winner ratio quoted in the Van Tarp and Brian June "Intraday trading: secrets of mastership". With 90% quoted universally, there naturally emerges the question, as to whether there is someone capable to check, to specify or to disprove the above figure.
NO ONE IS, besides the directors of largest Western banks providing streamline Forex quotes, but having never raised the issue.
WHY? Because should this statistics be published, there will be sharp and ultimate decline in number of those chasing easy profits from the world Forex market. Otherwise banks would not keep mum in advertising purposes. Neither would they be silent if losers constituted at least by few points less than 90%. In any advertising, customer attraction is ensured by quoting beneficial maxima and non-lucrative minima. This has always been, is being and will always be a universal practice.
As a conclusion, 10% Forex winners is a maximum result among traders. It's them, who have understood Forex market absolutely simple truisms and who attained steady daily earnings in amounts being gained by others within years or even the whole of life.
Certainly, those are to be recollected, who in late 80s were the first in the ex-USSR to grasp laws of commerce and who began accumulating their initial stock. The rules used to be so simple that presently any schoolboy or a first-year student can show the way the capital might have been easily scraped up and augmented on the USSR debris and in the course of market relations being established in the post-Soviet space.
I do exactly allow for the fact that through the years a new generation will be laughing at the way we are now incapable to comprehend the laws, where under currency rates either spike up or fall down, all of a sudden.
With this provision, those seeking fast money at Forex have a much greater time limit than the ones engaged in capital building in the post-Soviet space (Forex market is incommensurably greater than that in the ex-USSR), but not to the extent thought by many.
By now trends are thoroughly less numerous than they used to be 10-20 years ago. By way of taking a glance the charts history You are in the position to understand the way traders used to earn under 20- 40 pts spread, commission and slippage. A trend was followed by a trend at that epoch.
AND WHAT'S NOW? Nowadays many of traders are impotent to gain under 3 pts spread without commission and slippage.
Thus, this book is intended for those willing to perceive Forex market laws.
In order to get understanding of the way 5-10% of successful traders obtain profits, let's at the outset analyze the reasons and the way the outstanding 90% of traders suffer losses. The 90%-figure looks scaring, to say nothing of 95% or 98%. It occurs despite the amount of literature on the issue equals to hundreds of fundamental books, written by authors, having gained capitals expressed by means of more than 7-digit figures (G. Soros, B. Williams, A. Elder, T. Demark).
Thus, the above minimum of 90% of smart, well-read, broad-knowledged people:
- scrutinize the really great traders' heritage;
- open accounts with Forex Broker's and banks, start trading and...
- loose funds up to complete rout!
AND WHERE'S THE LOGIC? The answer springs to mind by itself... There's something wrong in the literature (by the way, recognized throughout the world, where the deposit-killing statistics is as disappointing as it is in our country) so long as its studying yields such oppressive results.
STRANGE? No, rather natural, than strange on account of the following:
1. Being a great trader is not indicative of everyone being a great teacher.
2. Multitude of rules elaborated by scholars 10-40 years ago, has grown obsolete, since the Forex market is changing.
3. The scholars HAVE NOT revealed ALL the secrets even WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE THEN
FOREX, therefore by now their advice and recommendation turn out either obsolete or naïve.
Thus, once one's advice and recommendations bring every 9 of 10 market participants to loose their money in each country, where one's books have used to be published and have enjoyed all sorts of hosanna in the press, THEN ONE IS NONE OF A TEACHER.
Naturally, no trader will reveal his professional secrets to the full. But when studying Forex literature one gets astonished by a negligible extent the above secrets are "confided" at all, with a book on Forex containing 99% of common truth and 1% only of useful novelties. But should one train up even several thousands perspective traders, one will in no way burden oneself with competitors, due to the Forex market huge sale nature. Beyond a shadow of a doubt the above traders are really great. You may agree or not, but anyone, having earned USD1 bn or more, deserves being named "great". So, one's books should be published as memoirs. I am not attaching any irony hereto, since these persons have acquired gains by virtue of their minds and labor, as opposite to Rockfellers, who inherited their fortunes or to Russian oligarchs, who either stole or got their capitals dirt-cheap from state authorities.
Hopefully, understandable is the difference between such editions and manuals for beginners.
G. Kasparov, say, is far from writing manuals for chess beginners, since the job can be better completed by others with this fact not at all undermining Kasparov's being a great chess player. And his advice and recommendation is sure to be of interest rather to a close circle of grand masters, than to those having touched the chess for the first time.
Actually Kasparov is but to be respected for not being tempted by the lust for fast money, by virtue of his name in the chess world and by way of cooking up manuals for beginners.
At Forex, by contrast, and for some reason, everyone deems oneself a teacher, which fact results in millions educated people worldwide leaving stock market being disappointed, angry with an inferiority complex life-time pursuit.
And hence, the unanswered question for them: is that all a fraud or not, since gains are midget, whereas losses are titanic?
I am recalling the book titled "The Alchemy of Finance" by G. Soros (the one I've read in early 90-s). I admit, it's interesting, instructive..., but it is all narrated in so an inarticulate and tangled manner. As indicated in the foreword by an American investor, the theory has hardly been understood by few only.
So what's the use of writing in such a manner? A theory may generally be complicated to any extent, BUT IT MUST BE wrapped in a simple, clear and understandable wording.
You are welcome to attempt to read the above book once You have time to. Shortly, the Soros reflexivity theory of the countries' cyclic development may easily bear a couple-sentence confinement:
1. Following liberation from totalitarian yoke, a country is granted credits, then, there is a rapid growth and flourish of economy.
2. As soon as the above credits are to be paid back, a country's economy faces a natural recession.
Is it as difficult? The question may be addressed to a schoolboy (to say nothing of an American investor): when should those countries' companies' shares be purchased and when they are to be advantageously sold in order to acquire maximum profit? What's going to happen in case one is too late to sell the shares, shortly exhibiting an impetuous growth in price?
Propounded long before, the Soros theory has been entirely corroborated in August, 98 by the dismal practice established in Asian and Pacific countries and later in Russia.
There still is another question: how inarticulate should Soros have been to enable his theory to be grasped by few only?
The second part of the book is not worth retelling. Reading its original is sure to be much more instructive with my annotation leaving no conundrums therein.
The theory is permeated by Soros's strategy: enter long on what's shortly going to enjoy price growth with a 100% probability and "pull out" Your money along with profits before the companies enter crisis, thus facilitating bankruptcies thereof.
This is the way I clearly lecture my students on Forex-related complexities, thus conveying my logics to them. Despite its own complexities (news, TA, corrective actions, etc.), Forex is essentially reduced to a very simple truth: at a certain moment one should not be late with going long or short on a currency with "tertium non datum".
And when asked if the Williams Alligator needs something to be added thereto, the majority of my students reply "Yes!", indicating what exactly is to be added.
I'll present a detailed vivisection of the issue in a separate chapter by way of proving that the Williams Alligator is but 50% effective.
Fig. 4. H1 EUR chart as of April 12, 2005. (See Note below)
The Alligator's jaws display upward opening with a fractal formed at 1.3006. According to Williams, one should enter long one point higher, i.e. at 1.3007. Upward motion continues extra 11 points. Then the rate sharply swivels to fall down by 170 pts.
Another example.
Fig. 5. H1 EUR chart as of April 22, 2005. (See Note below)
Please, figure out 1.3094, 16 pts above the previous fractal, following the Alligator upward opening. Thereafter, a sharp down swivel covering 140 pts.
Hundreds of similar examples may be drawn. But what are the implications?
With the Alligator's mouth opened, 50% of entries should be pro-Williams while the outstanding 50% - counter-Williams (i.e. vectored opposite to the Alligator mouth opening). When embarking on Forex, You must possess clear knowledge of the difference between either of the above 50%-portions. Otherwise..., You are doomed to loose even if You follow Williams's technique, let alone other ones.
Even my students are in the position to advise what is to be added to Alligator in order to realize proper entry vectoring. Least of all would I want this example to be taken as a personal criticism of Bill Williams, whose contribution to the Forex theory is a significant one. And the majority of traders, like me, used to begin earning after studying HIS books. But not to go astray..., even without any addenda Williams managed to make a tremendous fortune, since a skilled trader (moreover being the Alligator's father) is capable to differentiate between a steady travel and a pullback, or, say, a flat, or, visa versa, a trend low for the entry to be vectored oppositely. It is all fairly understandable for an experienced trader. But what about beginners as regards their interpretation of a flat, a recovery or a trend change?
These folks are sure to require assistance, especially, in information not presented in literature on Forex.
Without this knowledge a trader will never perceive the ABCs of stable daily earnings. But why the Forex scholars do not clear out the issue? This query is to be addressed to them, not to me. While reading these opuses, I am getting horrified at the fact that we are being foisted expensive high-sounding titled books, which are not going to ever teach a trader how to attain profits at the market.
Let's open one of them (E. Nayman's "Trader's Minor Encyclopedia" and "Master-trading: Secret Files") to get the understanding of the way almost all the books on Forex are written and supposed to have the price of USD20-100.
You may agree or not, but the name looks very beautiful and pretentious: "Master-trading: Secret Files", 320 pages of sheer secrets...
HOWEVER, I HAVEN'T FOUND ANY SECRETS THERE! You are welcome to discuss an argue Yourself:
1. "The interrelation between fundamental factors and exchange rate dynamics" being a detailed story of how a country's macroeconomic growing, benign rumors trading and political stability promote the exchange rate growth.
A "valuable" secret to be practically encountered in any Forex edition. But below is a real FA secret (not paid any attention to by Nayman): why does currency use to reverse against its country's economic news? A whole chapter here will be dedicated to the issue.
2. "Construction of two moving averages on a single chart and twin combinations thereof". The author furnishes a "wise" recommendation: entries should be made in the direction the MAs diverge (adding secretly that the most effective MA combination is 21, 55, 89, etc., as per Fibonacci).
The pseudo-secret nature of the above recommendation underlies the fact that any MA combination (should it be 21+55, as the author's; 10+20 as in many Western trading systems; 5+8+13 as per B. Williams or 1+21 as used by numerous traders) yields the same results.
Ok. It all looks great. However, E. Nayman et al., seem to have circumvented the MA intersection chief secret, through which traders suffer constant losses: a "lighter" MA has crossed a "heavier" one, say, upwards, but... thereafter there is sharp downturn resulting in the MAs intersection again.
Fig. 6. GBPUSD H1 chart as of April, 21-26, 2005. (See Note below)
A fivefold reciprocating crossing of MA 21 and 55. You are welcome to calculate traders' losses.
Now, let's call it a day with examples. The MA intersection technique operates perfectly in certain circumstances, while turning out impotent in others, thus inflicting losses upon traders. No criteria have ever been stipulated by Forex scholars as to entries to be effected pro- or counter-divergence of moving averages.
3. MACD construction and analysis. What sort of secret may one expect from the following statement of Nayman's: "a subsequent high being lower than the preceding one suggests a bullish trend depletion or even its changing with the same being visa versa under minimum MACD values". Much of a secret, isn't it? I thought it were the MACD operation principle, familiar to any Forex novice. The secret-fancier B. Williams hasn't even taken effort to advise to perform inputs change from 9, 12, 26 into 5, 34, 5 to provide for a lag killer.
Assuming the above, authentic MACD secrets are not paid any attention to by scholar, which fact inflicts losses upon traders. The situation comes into effect, when upon a divergence formation, no trend change is observed with another same-trend wave taking place instead.
Fig. 7. GBPUSD H1 chart as of April, 2005, where MA21 crosses MA55 with slight rise and sharp downturn. (See Note below)
Another example:
Fig. 8. GBPUSD H1 chart as of May, 2005: a divergence with MA10 upward crossing MA21; a brief nudge up to 1.8916 and a sharp downturn. (See Note below)
As different from Nayman and other Forex scholars, we'll touch in detail upon the ways to detect when MACD is trustworthy as a trend reversal attribute and when it is not.
4. TA classical patterns. One can not help smiling at the author sharing a secret of "head'n'shoulders" and "double bottom" patterns, being studied by beginners at the earliest lectures on Forex.
And here goes a real key secret: in what cases the patterns are indeed indicative of a reversal but in what cases brokers trap TA pattern-fanciers? Is there someone doubting the fact that patterns are known not only to traders, but as well to brokers with their mouths watering to make a rod for the backs of lovers and connoisseurs of the above patterns, just like on the sample chart below:
Fig. 9. GBPUSD H1 chart as of May, 09-11, 2005, a classical "inverted H&S" (See Note below)
At 1.8871 there's an impetuous upward breakthrough, the Alligator rotating upwards, MACD above zero, MA8 having intersected MA21 upwards, the Williams vaunted Awesome Oscillator signaling long entry, the Accelerator Oscillator pointing up... nevertheless, the rate reaches as far as 1.8916 and slips down to 1.8481 by 450 pts.
To be noted: much worth scrutinizing is the phenomenon of Nayman's "Trader's Minor Encyclopedia" and "Master-trading: secret files" purported at understanding why over 90% of traders turn losers after reading the books.
The solution, to my mind, is that the above opuses are but good "ABCs OF FOREX" thus giving birth to all Nayman's merits and demerits.
The guy is primarily awardable for having spared beginners' paying USD50-200 to various Forex training courses or academies. Instead, one can download and study Nayman's books, whose extracts are, by the way, quoted to trainees during their studies.
Nayman is generally to be expressed gratitude to, because of his having laid out the Forex basic course in a competent, popular and accessible way.
This is the point, I elucidate to every beginner, being introduced to me: first one should scrutinize Nayman's books, then only it's worth discussing hooks and crooks of earning at Forex instead of loosing.
Nevertheless, there is a chief Nayman's self-delusion about his folios really being in no way secret files with no one being able to find anything new to enable oneself to improve one's Forex earnings. These books containing neither unique techniques nor non-standard solutions are famous for the generalization and systematization of what has been the Forex knowledge prior to Nayman.
But this fact is not realized by majority gripped by the "Master-trading: Secret Files" fascination, who open live accounts and turn losers inevitably.
Shortly upon their pre-mature success on demo accounts these folks hastened to open live accounts and faced losses. But since the Dealers' staff managed to convince them in the incidental nature of the above losses, the folks ventured to go live again and did again turn to be deposit killers.
With these facts being proclaimed, I don't hold it appropriate to call any statistics science for help. Any sensible man is to get the understanding of the above losses as not being of an incidental nature.
There could be NO OTHER WAY about it.
The next trader training level comprises books by B. Williams: "Trading Chaos" and "New aspects of exchange trading", where the author propounds his own Forex trading methods along with advertising the other ones', viz. Elliott's.
My book, "Secrets Of Craftsmanship Narrated By Professional Trader Or What B. Williams and E. Nayman Have Concealed From Traders" is purported at developing of THAT particular school of training traders to practical operation at Forex.
Hardly will anyone object to the fact that B. Williams will disclose his Forex intimacies free of charge. Neither will he furnish their 100% disclosure after being paid to.
In all his splendor, Williams possessed sufficient knowledge to;
- to share A PORTION of his secrets in his "Trading Chaos";
- to share A PORTION of his secrets as a paid training;
- not to share A PORTION of his secrets in the least.
My book, "Secrets Of Craftsmanship Narrated By Professional Trader Or What B. Williams and E. Nayman Have Concealed From Traders" is also dedicated to teaching how the Williams secret methods are to be decoded properly to ensure successful Forex trading capabilities.
Each of my book's 20 chapters is permeated with a common logic aimed at finding relevant discrepancies in literature on Forex and at presenting my personal technique of Forex trading.
B. Williams declares being capable of analyzing tens of currency pairs (of 140-bar history each) that within tens of minutes, but in no way does he explain how to, whereas, I explain, that it's feasible for any wide-screen trader, provided my computer monitor being 3-currency capable only (see: "Ally and adversary currencies").
B. Williams sings about his magic Alligator, while I disclose and eliminate its pitfalls by, say, adding a MA233 thereto. This arrangement visualizes the whole of the 4 potential currency travel options: up/down above MA233; up/down under MA233.
B. Williams lists a stop-loss to be a "safety cushion", whereas I disclose and eliminate its shortcomings by way of alternatively using my own pending orders.
B. Williams hold trades volume to be authentic resistance breakthrough criterion, while I quote reasons by which trades volume turns to be deceptive on Metatrader platforms (thanks to the banks Consortium) and I introduce my own levels true/false breach criteria.
Now, regarding trading on news, I demonstrate the way one can turn a loser if trade like all the others and I offer my own on-news trading style.
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